Derby Picks

With the chance of rain looking to be 70% at post time, it's going to be a wild ride. There's not enough of a track record in the slop to get a real feel. Super Saver won a race in the slop at Belmont last September, Devil May Care did the same last August at Saratoga, and Backtalk won on a sloppy track in February at Delta Downs in Louisiana. There's also some workouts from the past week in the slop and mud at Churchill. Lookin' At Lucky, Ice Box, Stately Victor, Paddy O'Prado, Conveyance, and Sidney's Candy all ran bullets, but still, not a lot to go on. The guy at the Daily Racing Form thought Paddy O'Prado looked especially good working in the slop. I have to say, I like the way Ice Box closes. I have to use him in my picks. I'll go with the track clocker since he's watched the workouts and knows his stuff. So Paddy O'Prado will be in my picks. Lookin' At Lucky has to be considered as well. I like to find another horse to round out a trifecta box, and this is tough. Line of David, Sidney's Candy, Super Saver, and Awesome Act all scare me. But they all seem to get out of the gate and need the lead, so I'm going to play the hunch that they burn themselves out and don't last the 10 furlongs. Devil May Care scares me as well. But I'll go with Mission Impazible as my fourth horse. So here they are in this order:
1. Ice Box
2. Lookin' At Lucky
3. Paddy O'Prado
4. Mission Impazible

I'll box those bad boys up in a trifecta, and if the odds are okay, I may go with a straight bet on Ice Box, plus a little exacta action. With 20 horse in the field, I'll consider myself extremely lucky if two of my four make it in the money.
Good Luck, and do not hold me responsible for any lost money!