Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Not So Fast....

...my friends. I've been crunching and looking and projecting numbers all night. (yeah, no life but the glass of four roses is helping to shape this opinion) I think U.C. still has a ghost of a chance. With the emotion of that beatdown in the Carrierdome fading, I've come to my senses. The 'Cats can make the NCAA if they win the next 2 regular season games and IF they win 2 in the Big East tourney. Both of which are very doable. Follow me.

First up, South Florida. See previous post. U.C. will win.

Seton Hall Saturday at Fifth Third: The Pirates had a nice 5-game winning streak, all against teams U.C. has beaten. Since then, Seton Hall has lost 4 out of 5. The lone victory came against.......... South Florida. Advantage U.C.

I project U.C. finishing 10-8 in the Big East. But I also project Providence, Syracuse, and West Virginia finishing 10-8 as well. After sifting through the tiebreaker (tied teams form "mini conference" and are seeded in order of winning pct.) I came up with this...
Mini Conference (games against these tied common opponents)
Providence 3-1
Syracuse 2-1
West. Va. 1-2
U.C. 1-3 (thanks to the Providence losses)

Therefore U.C. gets the 9th seed in the Big East. Soooooooo..

Based on my projections, U.C. will play DePaul in round 1 of the Big East tourney. In round two, a rematch with the West Virginia Mountaineers. We thought last Thursday might be the play-in game.
Well that, my friends, could be coming next week at Madison Square Garden. Should U.C. beat West Virginia, then it's onto a game against the number 1 seed. After 2 games in 2 days, I'm not to optimistic for U.C.
But should U.C. win 2 games in the Big East the 'Cats are 22-12 overall. Do yourself a favor and compare the record, strength of schedule, and quality of wins against the other 20 or more bubble teams and U.C. has a darned strong case.

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