Not So Fast....

...my friends. I've been crunching and looking and projecting numbers all night. (yeah, no life but the glass of four roses is helping to shape this opinion) I think U.C. still has a ghost of a chance. With the emotion of that beatdown in the Carrierdome fading, I've come to my senses. The 'Cats can make the NCAA if they win the next 2 regular season games and IF they win 2 in the Big East tourney. Both of which are very doable. Follow me.

First up, South Florida. See previous post. U.C. will win.

Seton Hall Saturday at Fifth Third: The Pirates had a nice 5-game winning streak, all against teams U.C. has beaten. Since then, Seton Hall has lost 4 out of 5. The lone victory came against.......... South Florida. Advantage U.C.

I project U.C. finishing 10-8 in the Big East. But I also project Providence, Syracuse, and West Virginia finishing 10-8 as well. After sifting through the tiebreaker (tied teams form "mini conference" and are seeded in order of winning pct.) I came up with this...
Mini Conference (games against these tied common opponents)
Providence 3-1
Syracuse 2-1
West. Va. 1-2
U.C. 1-3 (thanks to the Providence losses)

Therefore U.C. gets the 9th seed in the Big East. Soooooooo..

Based on my projections, U.C. will play DePaul in round 1 of the Big East tourney. In round two, a rematch with the West Virginia Mountaineers. We thought last Thursday might be the play-in game.
Well that, my friends, could be coming next week at Madison Square Garden. Should U.C. beat West Virginia, then it's onto a game against the number 1 seed. After 2 games in 2 days, I'm not to optimistic for U.C.
But should U.C. win 2 games in the Big East the 'Cats are 22-12 overall. Do yourself a favor and compare the record, strength of schedule, and quality of wins against the other 20 or more bubble teams and U.C. has a darned strong case.